Kickoff: 23 Mar 2025
Germany
Italy
UEFA Nations League, Venue: Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund, Germany)
Match Timeline
Final Time (3-3)
90+9'
█
D. Udogie
90+5'
3-3
G. Raspadori (pen)
90+4'
VAR: penalty awarded (M. Zaccagni)
85'
M. Zaccagni (out: S. Ricci)
85'
L. Lucca (out: M. Kean)
79'
█
A. Bastoni
79'
█
T. Kleindienst
77'
Y. Bisseck (out: A. Rüdiger)
77'
R. Andrich (out: J. Musiala)
75'
VAR: no penalty (G. Di Lorenzo)
69'
3-2
M. Kean (G. Raspadori)
68'
G. Raspadori (out: S. Tonali)
68'
█
K. Adeyemi
63'
P. Groß (out: A. Stiller)
63'
N. Amiri (out: L. Goretzka)
63'
K. Adeyemi (out: L. Sané)
49'
3-1
M. Kean
46'
D. Frattesi (out: D. Maldini)
46'
M. Politano (out: F. Gatti)
Half Time (3-0)
45'
3-0
T. Kleindienst (J. Kimmich)
36'
2-0
J. Musiala (J. Kimmich)
30'
1-0
J. Kimmich (pen)
29'
█
A. Buongiorno
22'
█
A. Stiller
21'
█
F. Gatti
Statistics
Possession
57%
43%
Corner kicks
6
4
Fouls
15
13
Passes (total)
550
414
Yellow cards
3
4
Shots (total)
22
9
Shots (on target)
8
3
Shots (off target)
8
6
Accurate passes
489
346
Germany vs Italy Preview Stats
These statistics include important metrics such as Points Per Game, Win Percentage, BTTS, and Over 2.5 Goals. They are based on the last 10 matches (or fewer) across all competitions (including cups, continental leagues, etc). You can find more detailed data under "Teams Form" below.
Points Per Game (Overall)
Germany
Italy
2.1
1.4
Points Per Game (Home/Away)
Germany
Italy
3
1.67
Win Percentage (Overall)
Germany
Italy
60%
40%
Win Percentage (Home/Away)
Germany
Italy
100%
50%
Both Teams To Score (matches - Overall)
Germany
Italy
60%
70%
Both Teams To Score (matches - Home/Away)
Germany
Italy
0%
50%
Over 2.5 Goals (matches - Overall)
Germany
Italy
60%
60%
Over 2.5 Goals (matches - Home/Away)
Germany
Italy
50%
33%
Germany vs Italy Key Facts
Germany are 50% better in form than Italy over the last matches.
Germany are 60% better in terms of average goals scored than Italy over the last matches across all competitions.
Germany have been 43% better at preventing goals on average compared to Italy over the last matches.
Germany (playing at home) are 221% better in terms of average goals scored than Italy (playing away).
Germany, playing at home, has outperformed Italy by 100% in terms of average goals conceded when Italy is playing away.
Referee: Szymon Marciniak
Avg ▊: 4.3
Avg ▊: 0.1
Avg
▊
▊
: 0.1
Germany vs Italy Head to Head
Germany
All Time H2H
11 matches
Italy
Wins
4
Draws
5
Wins
2
16
Goals
10
36.4%
Win Perc.
18.2%
45.5%
Draw Perc.
45.5%
18.2%
Lost Perc.
36.4%
BTTS Yes / No
72.7% / 27.3%
2.5 Goals Over / Under
36.4% / 63.6%
Germany
Recent H2H
3 matches
Italy
Wins
2
Draws
1
Wins
0
8
Goals
4
66.7%
Win Perc.
0%
33.3%
Draw Perc.
33.3%
0%
Lost Perc.
66.7%
BTTS Yes / No
100% / 0%
2.5 Goals Over / Under
66.7% / 33.3%
Last match between Germany and Italy was played on 20-03-2025, at Italy's stadium and was won by Germany with 1-2.
Germany vs Italy Prediction
How Often Did the Teams Win When They Were Expected To?
Germany started as the favorite in 8 out of their last 10 matches and successfully upheld that status by winning 5 (63%). This performance is considered very good.
Italy entered 6 of their last 10 matches as the favorite, maintaining that status in 2 (33%) of those matches with a win. This performance is rated as poor.
Last 15-Minute Comebacks: Points Secured from a Losing Position
Germany (1 point earned away):
- playing away against Switzerland, drew 1-1 (23 Jun 2024), Euro, Group A.
Italy (1 point earned away):
- playing away against Croatia, drew 1-1 (24 Jun 2024), Euro, Group B.
Who Will Win?
We believe there is a 51% chance that the match will be won by Germany (moderate confidence).
The chances for Italy stand at 23.6%, while the probability of a draw is 25.4%.
Will Both Teams Score?
There is moderate confidence that Germany and Italy will both score in this match (53.6% chance for Yes).
How Many Goals Will Be Scored (Over/Under 2.5)?
At the moment, the chances of over or under 2.5 goals being scored in the match are the same.
View Performance of PredictionsMore Chances (by odds)
First To Score
1
X
2
58.1%
8.1%
33.8%
Confidence: moderate
First Half Result
1
X
2
37.1%
42.2%
20.6%
Confidence: moderate
Match Corners 9.5
Over
Under
44.3%
55.7%
Confidence: moderate
DISCLAIMER:
The predictions provided on this site are for informational purposes only and are not guaranteed outcomes. We strongly recommend to make your own judgments before placing any bets. The site cannot be held responsible or liable for any wins or losses resulting from relying solely on these predictions without independent analysis.
Teams Form (all competitions)
Germany
→
Italy
→
10
Matches
10
2.1
Pts/Game (PPG)
1.4
3
PPG Home
1
1.5
PPG Away
1.67
60%
Win Perc.
40%
100%
Win Perc. Home
25%
33%
Win Perc. Away
50%
30%
Draw Perc.
20%
0%
Draw Perc. Home
25%
50%
Draw Perc. Away
17%
10%
Lost Perc.
40%
0%
Lost Perc. Home
50%
17%
Lost Perc. Away
33%
6 / 3 / 1
Won/Draw/Lost
4 / 2 / 4
4 / 0 / 0
W/D/L Home
1 / 1 / 2
2 / 3 / 1
W/D/L Away
3 / 1 / 2
Teams Goals (all competitions)
Germany
24 - 8
Italy
15 - 14
24 / 2.4
Scored / Avg
15 / 1.5
15 / 3.75
Scored Home / Avg
8 / 2
9 / 1.5
Scored Away / Avg
7 / 1.17
8 / 0.8
Conceded / Avg
14 / 1.4
0 / 0
Conc. Home / Avg
8 / 2
8 / 1.33
Conc. Away / Avg
6 / 1
6
BTTS Matches
7
60%
BTTS %
70%
0%
BTTS Home
100%
100%
BTTS Away
50%
60%
Over 2.5
60%
40%
Under 2.5
40%
50%
Over 2.5 Home
100%
50%
Under 2.5 Home
0%
67%
Over 2.5 Away
33%
33%
Under 2.5 Away
67%
Teams Statistics (points, goals, corners etc)
7
Matches
7
2.43
PPG
1.86
2.9
Scored Avg
2
0.71
Conceded Avg
1.43
71%
Win Perc.
57%
29%
Draw Perc.
14%
0%
Lost Perc.
29%
3.6
Match goals Avg*
3.4
0%
Failed to score
0%
43%
Clean Sheets
14%
63%
Possession
51%
1.9
Match Cards Avg*
1.7
1.9
▊Cards Avg
1.4
0
▊Cards Avg
0.1
9.1
Total Corners Match*
9.3
5.1
Total Corners Team*
4
* Match Goals: average total number of goals scored in a match (both teams).
* Match Cards Avg: average number of cards received by the team, per match.
* Total Corners: average number of corners per match (both teams).
* Total Corners Team: average number of corners earned by the team, per match.
Teams Statistics (Over/Under goals, cards, corners etc)
57%
BTTS
86%
14%
BTTS 1H
43%
14%
BTTS 2H
29%
71%
Goals Over 2.5
86%
43%
Goals Over 3.5
57%
29%
Goals Over 4.5
14%
29%
Goals Under 2.5
14%
57%
Goals Under 3.5
43%
43%
Corners Over 4.5
43%
29%
Corners Over 5.5
29%
29%
Corners Over 6.5
14%
29%
Corners Over 7.5
14%
43%
Cards Over 1.5
43%
43%
Cards Over 2.5
14%
14%
Cards Over 3.5
14%
0%
Cards Over 4.5
0%
* Corners Over: earned by the team.
* Cards Over: cards received by the team.